Abstract

Challenging conventional wisdom, this study unravels the complex relationships between partisan fragmentation across levels of government and organized crime’s strategic use of political violence in Mexico. Leveraging novel methodological approaches on a comprehensive 2018-2023 municipal dataset, the analysis isolates discrete “fragmentation shocks” to test three hypotheses. Counterintuitively, increased vertical misalignment between municipal and federal parties reduces violence targeting local authorities, suggesting criminal groups favor cooption over confrontation amid disrupted power arrangements. Ideological polarization between fragmented parties and between coalitioned governments exhibits no clear violence impacts. While fragmentation appears to reduce threats to political elites, its effects on civilian victimization are less clear. The nuanced findings highlight how evolving partisan landscapes shape organized crime’s incentives for anti-state coercion. As criminalized politics erodes Mexico’s democracy, disentangling these dynamics illuminates potential remedies for restoring rule of law where criminal sovereignty embeds within state institutions.